Disease activity early in the course of treatment predicts response to therapy after one year in rheumatoid arthritis patients
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To assess whether disease activity levels at treatment initiation or during the first 3 months of therapy predict disease activity at 1 year after treatment initiation. METHODS: Pooled patient data from early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) clinical trials (n = 1,342) of methotrexate (MTX), tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitor monotherapy (adalimumab and etanercept), and the combination of the two (adalimumab or infliximab plus MTX) were used for the primary analyses. Pooled data from clinical trials of MTX and of TNF inhibitor plus MTX in late RA (n = 712) were used for validation of the results. Disease activity was primarily assessed using the Simplified Disease Activity Index (SDAI); in addition, we calculated the Disease Activity Score 28-joint assessment (DAS28) and the Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI). Associations of disease activity measures at baseline and at 1, 2, 3, and 6 months with disease activity values or disease activity states at 1 year were performed using Spearman's rank correlation, analysis of variance, and diagnostic testing procedures, including receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses, and probit analysis. RESULTS: Correlations with SDAI values at end point were significant (P < 0.0001) at baseline, and increased to r = approximately 0.6 at 3 months. The area under the ROC curve indicated a high diagnostic test yield with respect to the 1-year outcome (area under the ROC curve approximately 0.8). At all time points, including baseline, the group of patients who achieved remission at 1 year had lower average SDAI values than did those whose disease activity was high at 1 year. The groups achieving low or moderate disease activities at 1 year had SDAI values lying between. Baseline disease activity was less associated with disease activity at the end point for treatment with TNF inhibitor plus MTX, indicating its effectiveness over a broader range of baseline disease activity, but the association with end point disease activity was similar to that in the MTX treatment group at 1 month after treatment initiation. The data were similar when scores on the DAS28 and CDAI were used and were fully validated in the independent cohort of patients with late RA. CONCLUSION: The level of disease activity at baseline and especially during the first 3 months of treatment is significantly related to the level of disease activity at 1 year. Patients who reach a moderate or low disease activity status after 3-6 months of therapy may require switching to alternative therapies. Our findings indicate that intensive and dynamic treatment strategies that include a closer look at disease activity at 3 months in patients with early and late RA is warranted.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".