Stock Market Investors: Who Is More Rational, and Who Relies on Intuition?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Contemporary research documents various psychological aspects of economic and financial thought and decision-making. The main goal of our study is to analyze the effects of five well-documented behavioral biases, namely, disposition effect, herd behavior, availability heuristic, gambler's fallacy and hot hand fallacy, on the mechanism of stock market decision-making, and, in particular, the individual differences in the degrees of these effects. Employing an extensive online survey, we document that on average, active stock market investors exhibit moderate degrees of behavioral biases. Furthermore, we find that, on the one hand, more experienced investors are less affected by behavioral patterns, yet, on the other hand, professional portfolio managers do not behave, in this respect, differently (more rationally) from non-professional investors. We, therefore, infer that investor's experience in stock market matters, but not the
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".