Trend in Northern Hemisphere Winter Atmospheric Circulation during the Last Half of the Twentieth Century
Bibliographic record
Abstract
During the last half century, the trend in the Northern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation has been associated with a deepening of both the Aleutian and Icelandic lows, a pattern akin to the “Cold Ocean Warm Land” (COWL) pattern. A simplified dynamical model is used to show that the observed simultaneous deepening trend in both the Aleutian and Icelandic lows can be largely explained as a hemispheric planetary wave response to tropical diabatic forcing in the Indo–Pacific region. In the model, the extratropical storm tracks play a role in modulating the wave train, tending to enhance (weaken) the anomalous Icelandic (Aleutian) low in the North Atlantic (North Pacific) sector. The model results also suggest two ways in which the circulation trend over the North Atlantic sector could have been influenced by tropical forcing: one a direct, linear planetary wave response from the eastern tropical Pacific and the other an indirect response of the North Atlantic storm track to tropical forcing over the western Indo–Pacific region. The possible role of tropical SST warming and anthropogenic forcing is also discussed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".