Comparison of Measures of Risk for Recidivism in Sexual Offenders
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Data for both sexual and violent recidivism for the Static-99, Risk Matrix 2000 (RM 2000), Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offense Recidivism (RRASOR), and Static-2002 are reported for 419 released sexual offenders assessed at the Regional Treatment Centre Sexual Offender Treatment Program. Data are analyzed by offender type as well as the group as a whole. Overall, the Static-2002 performed best for both outcomes, although differences between measures were not significant. The one exception to this was the RRASOR, which overall performed poorly. For rapists, the Static-2002 performed best for sexual recidivism, and the Risk Matrix 2000 performed best for violent recidivism. None of the measures performed well in predicting recidivism for child molesters. The components of the Static-2002 were examined in a regression analysis predicting sexual recidivism. Persistence of Sexual Offending and Age at Release were the only significant predictors for the group as a whole and for rapists. For child molesters, only the Deviant Sexual Interests component was significant. Results are discussed in terms of the current debate concerning age and risk for reoffence.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".