Low Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) Associated with Malignant Middle Cerebral Artery Infarction
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Early decompressive hemicraniectomy following malignant middle cerebral artery (MCA) infarction reduces mortality and improves clinical outcome. Imaging predictors of malignant infarction may serve as 'red flags', prompting intensive neurological monitoring and timely intervention. Our objective is to investigate whether lower ASPECTS (Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score) is associated with malignant MCA infarction. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of all patients with MCA territory ischemic strokes who were admitted to the Royal Melbourne Hospital (RMH) between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2009 (226 patients included). The main outcome measures were ASPECTS on admission for each patient and the development of malignant MCA infarction. RESULTS: One-hundred-and-eight patients out of 226 (48%) developed malignant MCA infarction. Good (>0.8) inter-rater agreement between observers scoring ASPECTS was observed using weighted kappa, intra-class correlation coefficient and Lin's concordance coefficients. Using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, we validated that ASPECTS 7 was the optimal cut-off score to determine progression to malignant infarction, providing 50% sensitivity and 86% specificity. One hundred and fifty six patients had ASPECTS >7 (69%) and 70 patients had ASPECTS ≤7 (31%). Patients with ASPECTS ≤7 were significantly younger than those with ASPECTS >7, with the median age of each group being 72.5 and 78 respectively (p = 0.02); otherwise the groups were well-matched. With ASPECTS ≤7, 54 out of 70 patients (77%) developed malignant MCA infarction, compared with 54 out of 156 patients (35%) with ASPECTS >7 (age-adjusted OR = 0.12, 95% CI: 0.06, 0.25; p < 0.0001). If ASPECTS ≤7 is a positive result, then the positive predictive value is 77% and the negative predictive value is 65%. The median ASPECTS for developing malignant MCA infarction was 7.5 (IQR: 5 to 10), while the median ASPECTS for not developing MCA infarction was 10 (IQR: 8 to 10), resulting in a significant age-adjusted median difference of 2 (95% CI: 0.8, 3.2; p < 0.0001). We also found that coma on admission is associated with the development of malignant MCA infarction (OR = 22.63, 95% CI: 1.3, 393.7; p = 0.0323) and that a history of hypertension is not associated with the development of malignant MCA infarction (OR = 0.9707, 95% CI: 0.54, 1.75; p = 0.9213). CONCLUSIONS: ASPECTS ≤7 on initial brain CT in a patient with MCA infarction is associated with the development of malignant MCA infarction. We recommend close monitoring of, and early consideration of decompressive hemicraniectomy for, acute stroke patients with ASPECTS ≤7.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".