Potential impact of climate change on fire risk in the Mediterranean area
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this study, output of the Hadley Centre Regional Circulation Model (RCM) (HadRM3P, 0.44° × 0.44° resolution) was used as input to the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) for the present and 2 future IPCC climate scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [SRES], A2 and B2 scenarios).The aim was to investigate the effects of climate change on fire risk (number of days with fire risk, length of fire risk season, etc.) for the EU Mediterranean countries.Results indicated a general increase in fire risk in both future scenarios over the whole study area.The increase in fire risk was mainly due to 3 components: (1) increase in the number of years with fire risk; (2) increase in the length of the season with fire risk; (3) increase of extreme events (e.g. total number of days with FWI > 45 and episodes with FWI > 45 for 7 consecutive days) during the fire season.As expected, A2 scenario showed a greater increase in risk than B2 scenario.These general increases in fire risk may have a very strong impact in areas where forest land cover is high (e.g. the Alps region in Italy, the Pyrenees in Spain and mountains of the Balkan region).
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".