Impact of short‐term exposure to low subzero temperatures on egg hatch in the hemlock looper, <i><scp>L</scp>ambdina fiscellaria</i>
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The frequency of extreme events, such as cold spells, is expected to increase under global warming. Therefore, the ability of insects to survive rapid changes in temperature is an important aspect to investigate in current population ecology. The hemlock looper ( HL ), L ambdina fiscellaria ( G uenée) ( L epidoptera: G eometridae), a defoliator of boreal balsam fir forests in eastern C anada, overwinters at the egg stage on tree trunks and branches where eggs can be exposed to very low subzero air temperatures. Using eggs from the island of N ewfoundland ( NL ) and Q uebec mainland ( QC ), we undertook field and laboratory experiments to determine: (1) their supercooling point ( SCP ) in mid‐January and mid‐February; (2) overwintering mortality; (3) cold tolerance to various combinations of subzero temperatures (−25, −30, −33, −35, or −37 °C) and exposure durations (2, 4, 8, 12, or 16 h); and (4) potential causes of death at subzero temperatures above the SCP . Regardless of population or sampling date, eggs supercooled on average at −40.1 °C. In the field, 59% of eggs from either population that overwintered in Sainte‐Foy ( QC ) and Corner Brook ( NL ) hatched successfully, whereas none did in Armagh ( QC ) or Epaule ( QC ). In the laboratory, 50% of eggs survived after 4 h at −34.4 °C or after 14 h at −32.9 °C. In contrast, regardless of exposure duration, >50% of eggs hatched at temperatures ≥−33 °C, but <50% did so at ≤−35 °C, suggesting high pre‐freeze mortality. However, when eggs were attached to thermocouples and exposed to temperatures ranging from −25 to −37 °C for 16 h, 69% froze at temperatures of −35 to −37 °C, but only 2% did at −25 or −30 °C. Time to freeze decreased as subzero temperatures declined, and this was more evident in island eggs than in mainland eggs. Overall, eggs can freeze after a brief exposure to subzero temperatures higher than the standard SCP , and are thus highly vulnerable to cold spells.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it