Acute Demyelination In Children: Predicting Pediatric Multiple Sclerosis Manifestation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Evaluation of: Banwell B, Bar-Or A, Arnold DL et al. Clinical, environmental, and genetic determinants of multiple sclerosis in children with acute demyelination: a prospective national cohort study. Lancet Neurol. 10(5), 436–445 (2011). This study represents a prospective Canadian cohort study investigating risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) development in children presenting with an acute demyelination event. Out of 302 children followed for a median of 3.14 years, 63 (21%) were diagnosed with MS during this period of time. HLA-DRB1*15 alleles, remote Epstein–Barr virus infection and reduced vitamin D levels were each independently associated with increased MS risk but did not show interacting effects. Based on MRI findings, age of onset and clinical presentation, the authors developed a decision tree, suggesting the highest risk for children with T2 lesions in baseline MRI that were >11.85 years of age at onset (60.6%). While this seems a helpful preliminary tool for clinicians, longer follow-up time as well as integration of additional genetic and environmental variables may allow an even more thorough risk estimation in future studies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".