Optometry Services in Ontario: Supply- and Demand-Side Factors from 2011 to 2036
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Optometric labour market projections are provided. First, population growth and ageing-based estimates of the rate of increase of eye-care services in Ontario from 2011 to 2$ are presented, holding the age-sex structure of utilization constant. Then, using data on the 2011 supply and working hours of Ontario's optometrists, the number of optometrists needed to keep the level of optometric services per age-sex-adjusted person comparable over time is estimated. The projections suggest that the number of Ontario optometrists should grow by approximately 30-40 full-time equivalents per year; to offset retirements and account for decreasing work hours, this suggests 77-90 new practitioners are required each year. However, in recent years, the number of Ontario optometrists has been growing faster than this, suggesting either that demand has exceeded supply and/or surpluses will accumulate if this trend continues.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".