CO<sub>2</sub> levels required for deglaciation of a “near‐snowball” Earth
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Geologic evidence suggests that in the Late Neoproterozoic (∼600 Ma) almost all land masses were glaciated, with sea‐level glaciation existing even at the equator. A recent modeling study has shown that it is possible to simulate an ice‐covered Earth glaciation with a coupled climate/ice‐sheet model. However, separate general circulation model experiments suggest that a second solution may exist with a substantial area of ice free ocean in the tropics. Although 0.1 to 0.3 of an atmosphere of CO2 (∼300 to 1000 X) is required for deglaciation of a “Snowball Earth,” the “exit” CO2 levels for an open water solution could be significantly less. In this paper we utilize a coupled climate/ice sheet model to demonstrate four points: (1) the open water solution can be simulated in the coupled model if the sea ice parameter is adjusted slightly; (2) a major reduction in ice volume from the open water/equatorial ice solution occurs at a CO2 level of about 4X present values—about two orders of magnitude less than required for exit from the “hard” snowball initial state; (3) additional CO2 increases are required to get fuller meltback of the ice; and (4) the open water solution exhibits hysteresis properties, such that climates with the same level of CO2 may evolve into either the snowball, open water, or a warmer world solution, with the trajectory depending on initial conditions. These results set useful targets for geochemical calculations of CO2 changes associated with the open‐water solution.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".