An analytical model assessing the potential threat to natural habitats from insect resistance transgenes: continuous transgene input
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The potential effects of 'escape' of genetically modified material (transgenes) into natural communities is a major concern in their use. These effects may be limited in the first instance by limiting the proportion of transgene-carrying plants in the natural community. We previously presented an analytical model of the ecological processes governing the relative abundance and persistence of insect resistance (IR) transgenes in a natural community. In that paper, we illustrated the case in which the transgene is input into the community in a single season using data from oilseed rape (OSR) and its known herbivore, Plutella macropennis. We found that the transgene is unlikely to have a great impact on the natural community. Here, we extend the model for repeated input of crop pollen carrying the transgene. We show the model output, again using OSR, for continuous input of the transgene over 10 years, the projected commercial lifetime of a transgene without associated undesirable agronomic effects. Our results do not change our original conclusion that the IR transgene need not have a large impact on the natural community and our suggestions for assessing and mitigating any threat still stand.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".