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Record W2065227035 · doi:10.1139/x05-071

A lightning fire occurrence model for Ontario

2005· article· en· W2065227035 on OpenAlex
B. Mike Wotton, David L. Martell

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

venuePublished in a venue whose home country is Canada.
aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueCanadian Journal of Forest Research · 2005
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicFire effects on ecosystems
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsLightning (connector)Environmental scienceDrynessIgnition systemEcoregionMeteorologyLightning strikeThunderstormAtmospheric sciencesGeographyGeologyEcologyEngineering

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Lightning strike, fire weather, and fire occurrence data were used to model (i) the probability that a lightning strike causes a sustainable ignition on the forest floor and (ii) the probability of an ignition being detected and reported to the fire management agency for each ecoregion in the province of Ontario. An index that tracks duff moisture content in very sheltered areas of a forest stand (near the tree boles) was the most significant predictor in each ignition model. The presence of positive cloud-to-ground lightning strikes was also found to have a significant and positive influence on the probability of ignition in most areas of the province with the exception of the far northwest. Weather conditions following a lightning storm influence the probability that a lightning strike causes a sustainable ignition. Models of the probability of detecting a fire ignited by lightning were also created for each of the ecoregions across Ontario. The form of these models varied somewhat among ecoregions, but contained an indicator of receptive surface fire spread conditions and an indicator of the dryness of the heavier fuels (the organic layer) in the forest floor.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.767
Threshold uncertainty score0.808

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.050
GPT teacher head0.299
Teacher spread0.249 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it