Incidence and Course of Low Back Pain Episodes in the General Population
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In Brief Study Design. Population-based, prospective cohort. Objectives. To estimate incidence and course of severity-graded low back pain (LBP) episodes in adults. Summary of Background Data. Past studies report variable estimates that do not differentiate LBP severity. Methods. An incidence cohort of 318 subjects free of LBP and a course cohort of 792 prevalent cases was formed from respondents to a mailed survey. Incident, recurrent, persistent, aggravated, improved, and resolved episodes were defined by the Chronic Pain Questionnaire. The follow-up at 6 and 12 months was 74% and 62%, respectfully. Annual estimates were age and sex standardized. Results. The cumulative incidence was 18.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 14.2%–23.0%). Most LBP episodes were mild. Only 1.0% (95% CI, 0.0%–2.2%) developed intense and 0.4% (95% CI, 0.0%–1.0%) developed disabling LBP. Resolution occurred in 26.8% (95% CI, 23.7%–30.0%), and 40.2% (95% CI, 36.7%–43.8%) of episodes persisted. The severity of LBP increased for 14.2% (95% CI, 11.5%–16.8%) and improved for 36.1% (95% CI, 29.7%–42.2%). Of those that recovered, 28.7% (95% CI, 21.2%–36.2%)had a recurrence within 6months,and 82.4% of it was mild LBP. Younger subjects were less likely to have persistent LBP (incidence rate ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.80–0.97) and more likely to have resolution (incidence rate ratio, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.02–1.56). Conclusions. Most new and recurrent LBP episodes are mild. Less than one third of cases resolve annually, and more than 20% recur within 6 months. LBP episodes are more recurrent and persistent in older adults. The annual incidence and course of low back pain episodes were investigated in the adult population. The age- and sex-standardized cumulative incidence proportion was 18.6%, and most of it was mild. Resolution occurred in 26.8%, but 28.7% experienced a recurrence within 6 months. While 36.1% showed some improvement, 40.2% remained unchanged and 14.2% got worse.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it