Rate and Predictors of Early/Missed Colorectal Cancers After Colonoscopy in Manitoba: A Population-Based Study
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Many of the colorectal cancers (CRCs) diagnosed within 3 years after a colonoscopy are likely because of lesions missed on the initial colonoscopy. In this population-based study, we investigated the rate and predictors of CRCs diagnosed within 3 years of a colonoscopy. METHODS: We identified individuals 50-80 years of age diagnosed with CRC between 1992 and 2008 from the provincewide Manitoba Cancer Registry. Performance of colonoscopy and history of co-morbidities was determined by linkage to the provincial universal health care insurance provider's physician billing claims and hospital discharges databases. CRCs diagnosed within 6 months of a colonoscopy were categorized as detected CRCs and those 6-36 months after a colonoscopy as early/missed CRCs. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the patient, endoscopist, colonoscopy, and CRC factors associated with early/missed CRCs. RESULTS: Of the 4,883 CRCs included in the study, 388 (7.9%) were early/missed CRCs, with a range of 4.5% of rectum/rectosigmoid cancers in men to 14.4% of transverse colon/splenic flexure cancers in women. Independent risk factors associated with early/missed CRCs included prior colonoscopy, performance of index colonoscopy by family physicians, recent year of CRC diagnosis, and proximal site of CRC. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that approximately 1 in 13 CRCs may be an early/missed CRC, diagnosed after an index colonoscopy in usual clinical practice. Women are more likely to have early/missed CRC. It is unclear if this relates to differences in procedure difficulty, bowel preparation issues, or tumor biology between men and women.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it