Changes in Canadian heroin supply coinciding with the Australian heroin shortage
Bibliographic record
Abstract
AIMS: Previous studies have largely attributed the Australian heroin shortage to increases in local law enforcement efforts. Because western Canada receives heroin from similar source nations, but has not measurably increased enforcement practices or funding levels, we sought to examine trends in Canadian heroin-related indices before and after the Australian heroin shortage, which began in approximately January 2001. METHODS: During periods before and after January 2001, we examined the number of fatal overdoses and ambulance responses to heroin-related overdoses that required the use of naloxone in British Columbia, Canada. As an overall marker of Canadian supply reduction, we also examined the quantity of heroin seized during this period. Lastly, we examined trends in daily heroin use among injection drug users enrolled in the Vancouver Injection Drug Users Study (VIDUS). RESULTS: There was a 35% reduction in overdose deaths, from an annual average of 297 deaths during the years 1998-2000 in comparison to an average of 192 deaths during 2001-03. Similarly, use of naloxone declined 45% in the period coinciding with the Australian heroin shortage. Interestingly, the weight of Canadian heroin seized declined 64% coinciding with the Australian heroin shortage, from an average of 184 kg during 1998-2000 to 67 kg on average during 2001-03. Among 1587 VIDUS participants, the period coinciding with the Australian heroin shortage was associated independently with reduced daily injection of heroin [adjusted odds ratio: 0.55 (95% CI: 0.50-0.61); P < 0.001]. CONCLUSIONS: Massive decreases in three independent markers of heroin use have been observed in western Canada coinciding with the Australian heroin shortage, despite no increases in funding to Canadian enforcement efforts. Markedly reduced Canadian seizure activity also coincided with the Australian heroin shortage. These findings suggest that external global heroin supply forces deserve greater investigation and credence as a potential explanation for the Australian heroin shortage.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".