Climate change alters the trophic niche of a declining apex marine predator
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Changes in the world's oceans have altered nutrient flow, and affected the viability of predator populations when prey species become unavailable. These changes are integrated into the tissues of apex predators over space and time and can be quantified using stable isotopes in the inert feathers of historical and contemporary avian specimens. We measured δ(13) C and δ(15) N values in Flesh-footed Shearwaters (Puffinus carneipes) from Western and South Australia from 1936-2011. The Flesh-footed Shearwaters more than doubled their trophic niche (from 3.91 ± 1.37 ‰(2) to 10.00 ± 1.79 ‰(2) ), and dropped an entire trophic level in 75 years (predicted δ(15) N decreased from +16.9 ‰ to + 13.5 ‰, and δ(13) C from -16.9 ‰ to -17.9 ‰) - the largest change in δ(15) N yet reported in any marine bird, suggesting a relatively rapid shift in the composition of the Indian Ocean food web, or changes in baseline δ(13) C and δ(15) N values. A stronger El Niño-Southern Oscillation results in a weaker Leeuwin Current in Western Australia, and decreased Flesh-footed Shearwater δ(13) C and δ(15) N. Current climate forecasts predict this trend to continue, leading to increased oceanic 'tropicalization' and potentially competition between Flesh-footed Shearwaters and more tropical sympatric species with expanding ranges. Flesh-footed Shearwater populations are declining, and current conservation measures aimed primarily at bycatch mitigation are not restoring populations. Widespread shifts in foraging, as shown here, may explain some of the reported decline. An improved understanding and ability to mitigate the impacts of global climactic changes is therefore critical to the long-term sustainability of this declining species.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".