Economic Impact of Delays in Listing Decisions by Provincial Drug Plans after a Positive Common Drug Review Recommendation: The Case of a Smoking-Cessation Treatment
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Although varenicline (Champix), a smoking-cessation treatment, was recommended for listing by the Common Drug Review (CDR) in 2007, only one CDR-participating drug insurance plan listed it in March 2011 (Saskatchewan). This study estimated the economic impact of delays in the public listing of varenicline in Canada. Using statistical data and peer-reviewed research, social costs and benefits of reimbursing varenicline were estimated. Flows of attempted and successful quitters were projected over a five-year period for three scenarios: immediate listing (2007), one- to four-year listing delays, and no reimbursement. Benefits of public reimbursement of varenicline would have been greatest in the first year ($271 million) and then decreased due to the erosion in smoking prevalence. The current three-year listing delay prevented a projected 17,729 current smokers from quitting, translating into a projected additional lifetime social burden of $700 million. The sizeable opportunity cost of delaying varenicline reimbursement implies broader economic issues for policy makers.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.023 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".