Extreme value statistics in the solar wind: An application to correlated Lévy processes
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The interplay between the solar wind and the Earth's magnetosphere is a longstanding and challenging problem. An estimate of the energy influx into the magnetosphere is given by the Akasofu ε parameter. Extreme values of this parameter are of interest not only for magnetospheric response but also for the design of satellites, space stations, and considerations of astronaut safety. For the ε time series derived from ACE spacecraft measurements for the years 2000–2007, we find that its distribution of extreme values over time windows of about 18 h and longer can be accurately described by parametric models based on the mathematical theory of generalized extreme value statistics. These models predict that significantly larger values than observed to date can be expected during any 50 year period. While our findings seem to suggest that correlations and/or nonstationarities do not play a significant role for the extreme value statistics of the Akasofu ε parameter, we show that the contrary is in fact true. To isolate the effect of correlations and finite observation periods, we also consider the distribution of maximal changes in the ε parameter and compare it to the extreme value statistics of a recently proposed fractional Lévy motion‐type model. However, we find that fractional Lévy motion does not reliably capture the extremal behavior of the ε time series.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it