Cost–effectiveness analysis of rheumatic heart disease prevention strategies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Rheumatic heart disease (RHD), secondary to group A streptococcal infection is endemic in the developing as well as parts of the developed world with significant costs to the patient, and to the healthcare system. We briefly review the prevalence and cost of RHD in developed and developing nations. We subsequently develop a Markov model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of three strategies (vs standard no prevention) for preventing RHD in a developing world country: primary prophylaxis (throat swab to detect and subsequently treat group A streptococci as needed); primary prophylaxis (antibiotic prophylaxis for all) with benzathine penicillin G once monthly to all patients (ages 5-21 years) regardless of evidence of infection; and secondary prophylaxis with monthly only to those with echocardiographic evidence of early RHD. Our model suggests that echocardiographic screening and secondary prophylaxis is the best strategy although the strategies change depending on parameters used.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.006 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".