Seasonal precipitation in the south-central Helan Mountain region, China, reconstructed from tree-ring width for the past 224 years
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) trees from the Helan Mountain range in central China have been used to reconstruct total JanuaryJuly precipitation from AD 1775 to 1998. For the calibration period R2adj = 0.52. Narrow rings are associated with below-average precipitation from March through August. Wide rings are produced in years when the East Asian summer monsoon front arrives early. We use local historical writings over the last 300 years about extreme climatic conditions between spring and early summer to verify the extreme years. Most of the extreme dry years could be identified in local historical documents. Another East Asian summer monsoon front related precipitation reconstruction from northern Helan Mountain is also used to verify this reconstruction. They are well correlated from year to year, with a correlation coefficient of 0.52 (N = 218), and the wet or dry extreme events are well matched in many cases. This comparison could indicate a spatial and temporal connection of spring to early summer climatic conditions for the southern to northern portion of the Helan Mountain region. The sustained wet period before the 20th century lasts from the 1850s to the 1890s, and the longest dry period before the 20th century is in the 1830s and 1840s, largely coinciding with a springsummer drought in Kashmir. Overall, multiyear fluctuations, such as the spectacular large-scale drought of the late 1920s and droughts in the 1830s1840s and the 1970s, are well captured in this reconstruction, but only the 1970s drought is in the instrumental period. The reconstruction shows increasing variance from the 18th to the late 20th century.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".