Comparison of 3 Clinical Models for Predicting the Probability of Pulmonary Embolism
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Two clinical models have been described to predict the probability of pulmonary embolism: the Canadian (or Wells) model, and the Geneva model. A third model has been developed recently at our institution (the Pisa model). We compared the performance of the 3 models in 215 consecutive patients with suspected pulmonary embolism. The clinical probability predicted by the models was categorized as low, intermediate, or high. In all patients, pulmonary angiography was used as the reference diagnostic standard. In patients with pulmonary embolism, the extent of pulmonary embolization was assessed on the lung scan as an index of disease severity. The prevalence of pulmonary embolism was 43.3%, and the median extent of pulmonary embolization at diagnosis was 39.8% (range, 4.5%-75.3%). The proportions of patients categorized as having low, intermediate, or high probability were, respectively: 12%, 60%, and 28%, for the Geneva model; 30%, 55%, and 15%, for the Wells model; 37%, 37%, and 26% for the Pisa model. The frequencies of pulmonary embolism in the low, intermediate, and high probability categories were, respectively: 50%, 39%, and 49% for the Geneva model; 12%, 54%, and 64% for the Wells model; 5%, 42%, and 98% for the Pisa model. Among patients with pulmonary embolism, there was a strong, positive relation between clinical probability predicted by the Pisa model and the extent of pulmonary embolization. The Pisa model proved more accurate than the 2 other models. It may be useful to physicians in defining precisely the pretest probability of pulmonary embolism.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".