Probabilistic Analysis of Balancing Scores for Causal Inference
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Propensity scores are often used for stratification of treatment and control groups of subjects in observational data to remove confounding bias when estimating of causal effect of the treatment on an outcome in so-called potential outcome causal modeling framework. In this article, we try to get some insights into basic behavior of the propensity scores in a probabilistic sense. We do a simple analysis of their usage confining to the case of discrete confounding covariates and outcomes. While making clear about behavior of the propensity score our analysis shows how the so-called prognostic score can be derived simultaneously. However the prognostic score is derived in a limited sense in the current literature whereas our derivation is more general and shows all possibilities of having the score. And we call it outcome score. We argue that application of both the propensity score and the outcome score is the most efficient way for reduction of dimension in the confounding covariates as opposed to current belief that the propensity score alone is the most efficient way.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.036 | 0.143 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.011 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".