Time Trends in Epidemiology and Characteristics of Psoriatic Arthritis Over 3 Decades: A Population-based Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To determine time trends in incidence, prevalence, and clinical characteristics of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) over a 30-year period. METHODS: We identified a population-based incidence cohort of subjects aged 18 years or over who fulfilled ClASsification of Psoriatic ARthritis (CASPAR) criteria for PsA between January 1, 1970, and December 31, 1999, in Olmsted County, Minnesota, USA. PsA incidence date was defined as the diagnosis date of those who fulfilled CASPAR criteria. Age- and sex-specific incidence rates were estimated and age- and sex-adjusted to the 2000 US White population. RESULTS: The PsA incidence cohort comprised 147 adult subjects with a mean age of 42.7 years, and 61% were men. The overall age- and sex-adjusted annual incidence of PsA per 100,000 was 7.2 [95% confidence interval (CI) 6.0, 8.4] with a higher incidence in men (9.1, 95% CI 7.1, 11.0) than women (5.4, 95% CI 4.0, 6.9). The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of PsA per 100,000 increased from 3.6 (95% CI 2.0, 5.2) between 1970 and 1979 to 9.8 (95% CI 7.7, 11.9) between 1990 and 2000 (p for trend < 0.001). The point prevalence per 100,000 was 158 (95% CI 132, 185) in 2000, with a higher prevalence in men (193, 95% CI 150, 237) than women (127, 95% CI 94, 160). At incidence, most PsA subjects had oligoarticular involvement (49%) with enthesopathy (29%). CONCLUSION: The incidence of PsA has been rising over 30 years in men and women. Reasons for the increase are unknown, but may be related to a true change in incidence or greater physician awareness of the diagnosis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".