Predecessor Rain Events ahead of Tropical Cyclones
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Twenty-eight predecessor rain events (PREs) that occurred over the United States east of the Rockies during 1995–2008 are examined from a synoptic climatology and case study perspective. PREs are coherent mesoscale regions of heavy rainfall, with rainfall rates ≥100 mm (24 h)−1, that can occur approximately 1000 km poleward of recurving tropical cyclones (TCs). PREs occur most commonly in August and September, and approximately 36 h prior to the arrival of the main rain shield associated with the TC. A distinguishing feature of PREs is that they are sustained by deep tropical moisture that is transported poleward directly from the TC. PREs are high-impact weather events that can often result in significant inland flooding, either from the PRE itself or from the subsequent arrival of the main rain shield associated with the TC that falls onto soils already saturated by the PRE. The composite analysis shows that on the synoptic-scale, PREs form in the equatorward jet-entrance region of a 200-hPa jet on the western flank of a 925-hPa equivalent potential temperature ridge located east of a 700-hPa trough. On the mesoscale, PREs occur in conjunction with low-level frontogenetical forcing along a baroclinic zone where heavy rainfall is focused. A case study analysis was conducted of a PRE ahead of TC Erin (2007) that produced record-breaking rainfall (>250 mm) from southern Minnesota to Lake Michigan. This analysis highlighted the importance of frontogenetical forcing along a low-level baroclinic zone in the presence of deep tropical moisture from TC Erin in producing a long-lived, quasi-stationary mesoscale convective system.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it