Adaptation and Evolutionary Rescue in Metapopulations Experiencing Environmental Deterioration
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
It is not known whether evolution will usually be rapid enough to allow a species to adapt and persist in a deteriorating environment. We tracked the eco-evolutionary dynamics of metapopulations with a laboratory model system of yeast exposed to salt stress. Metapopulations experienced environmental deterioration at three different rates and their component populations were either unconnected or connected by local dispersal or by global dispersal. We found that adaptation was favored by gradual deterioration and local dispersal. After further abrupt deterioration, the frequency of evolutionary rescue depended on both the prior rate of deterioration and the rate of dispersal. Adaptation was surprisingly frequent and rapid in small peripheral populations. Thus, evolutionary dynamics affect both the persistence and the range of a species after environmental deterioration.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it