The societal challenge of ocean acidification
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The carbonate chemistry of the world’s oceans, including their pH, has been remarkably constant for hundreds of thousands of years (Pearson and Palmer, 2000), with typical surface ocean variations between ice ages and warm phases of no more than 0.2 pH units ([Sanyal et al., 1995], [Hönisch and Hemming, 2005] and [Foster, 2008]). However, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the oceans have taken up approximately 30% of the CO2 produced from fossil fuel burning, cement manufacture and land use changes (Sabine et al., 2004). While the invasion of CO2 into the ocean removes this greenhouse gas from the atmosphere and thereby dampens global warming, it forms carbonic acid in seawater and lowers ambient surface ocean pH (Broecker and Peng, 1982). Ocean acidification is the direct consequence of the excessive addition of CO2 to seawater (Broecker and Takahashi, 1977) and is therefore inherently more predictable than temperature and precipitation changes due to rising CO2 in the atmosphere. Changes are already measurable today ([Bates, 2001], [Bates et al., 2002], [Takahashi et al., 2003], [Keeling et al., 2004] and [Santana-Casiano et al., 2007]) and will become more pronounced as humankind emits more CO2 into the atmosphere, with surface ocean pH expected to decline by a further 0.3 pH units by the end of the century, corresponding to an approximately 100% increase in ocean acidity (hydrogen ion concentration [H+]), on top of the not, vert, similar0.1 pH unit decline to date ([Caldeira and Wickett, 2003], [Orr et al., 2005] and Solomon et al., 2007 In: S. Solomon et al., Editors, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2007).[Solomon et al., 2007]) (Fig. 1). Such a rapid change in ocean pH has very likely not happened since the time the dinosaurs went extinct 65 million years ago ([van der Burgh et al., 1993], [Pearson and Palmer, 2000] and [Pagani et al., 2005]). While the dissolution of carbonate sediments on the bottom of the ocean and the weathering of rocks on land coupled with mixing of surface and deeper waters will eventually restore ocean pH to its pre-industrial state, this process will take up to a million years to complete ([Archer, 2005] and [Ridgwell and Zeebe, 2005]).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.014 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".