Climate and Climate Change over North America as Simulated by the Canadian RCM
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract An analysis of several multidecadal simulations of the present (1971–90) and future (2041–60) climate from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) is presented. The effects on the CRCM climate of model domain size, internal variability of the general circulation model (GCM) used to provide boundary conditions, and modifications to the physical parameterizations used in the CRCM are investigated. The influence of boundary conditions is further investigated by comparing the GCM-driven simulations of the current climate with simulations performed using boundary conditions from meteorological reanalyses. The present climate of the model in these different configurations is assessed by comparing the seasonal averages and interannual variability of precipitation and surface air temperature with an observed climatology. Generally, small differences are found between the two simulations on different domains, though both domains are quite large as compared with previously reported results. Simulations driven by GCM output show a significant warm bias for wintertime surface air temperatures over northern regions. This warm bias is much reduced in the GCM-driven simulation when an updated set of physical parameterizations is used in the CRCM. The warm bias is also reduced for simulations with the standard set of physical parameterizations when the CRCM is driven with reanalysis data. However, use of the modified physics package for reanalysis-driven simulations results in surface air temperatures that are colder than the observations. Summertime precipitation in the model is much larger than observed, a bias that is present in both the GCM-driven and reanalysis-driven simulations. The bias in summertime precipitation is reduced for both types of driving data when the updated set of physical parameterizations is used. Model projections of climate change between the present and future periods are also presented and the sensitivity of these projections to many of the above-mentioned modifications is assessed. Changes in surface air temperature are predicted to be largest over northern regions in winter, with smaller changes over more southerly regions and in the summer season. Changes in seasonal average precipitation are projected to be in the range of ±10% of present-day amounts for most regions and seasons. The CRCM projections of surface air temperature changes are strongly affected by the internal variability of the driving GCM over high northern latitudes and to changes in the physical parameterizations over many regions for the summer season.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it