Climate and Climate Change over North America as Simulated by the Canadian RCM
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Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract An analysis of several multidecadal simulations of the present (1971–90) and future (2041–60) climate from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) is presented. The effects on the CRCM climate of model domain size, internal variability of the general circulation model (GCM) used to provide boundary conditions, and modifications to the physical parameterizations used in the CRCM are investigated. The influence of boundary conditions is further investigated by comparing the GCM-driven simulations of the current climate with simulations performed using boundary conditions from meteorological reanalyses. The present climate of the model in these different configurations is assessed by comparing the seasonal averages and interannual variability of precipitation and surface air temperature with an observed climatology. Generally, small differences are found between the two simulations on different domains, though both domains are quite large as compared with previously reported results. Simulations driven by GCM output show a significant warm bias for wintertime surface air temperatures over northern regions. This warm bias is much reduced in the GCM-driven simulation when an updated set of physical parameterizations is used in the CRCM. The warm bias is also reduced for simulations with the standard set of physical parameterizations when the CRCM is driven with reanalysis data. However, use of the modified physics package for reanalysis-driven simulations results in surface air temperatures that are colder than the observations. Summertime precipitation in the model is much larger than observed, a bias that is present in both the GCM-driven and reanalysis-driven simulations. The bias in summertime precipitation is reduced for both types of driving data when the updated set of physical parameterizations is used. Model projections of climate change between the present and future periods are also presented and the sensitivity of these projections to many of the above-mentioned modifications is assessed. Changes in surface air temperature are predicted to be largest over northern regions in winter, with smaller changes over more southerly regions and in the summer season. Changes in seasonal average precipitation are projected to be in the range of ±10% of present-day amounts for most regions and seasons. The CRCM projections of surface air temperature changes are strongly affected by the internal variability of the driving GCM over high northern latitudes and to changes in the physical parameterizations over many regions for the summer season.
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découle