Effects of future climate change on primary productivity and export fluxes in the Beaufort Sea
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We present projections of future primary production for the Canadian Beaufort Shelf of the Arctic Ocean, using simulations of future climate change from the Canadian Global Climate Model (CGCM2) to force a coupled sea ice‐ocean‐biological one‐dimensional model. We compare three 18 year simulations, 1975–1992, 2042–2059, and 2082–2099, to describe the impacts of a reduction in sea ice cover duration and thickness and an increase in surface freshwater fluxes. Our results show an increase in average annual primary production of 6% between the period 1975–1992 and the period 2042–2059 and an increase of 9% between 1975–1992 and 2082–2099. The relative contribution of the ice algal and spring phytoplankton blooms to the annual primary production is reduced in the future runs owing to a reduction in the length of the ice algal growth season (resulting from earlier snow and ice melt) and to a reduction in the replenishment of nutrient to the mixed layer in winter. The duration of the summer subsurface phytoplankton bloom increases, which favors the development of the main copepod species and leads to an increase in export production (16% between 1975–1992 and 2082–2099) that is greater than the increase in primary production.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".