Modeling dynamic reliability using dynamic Bayesian networks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper considers the problem of modeling and analyzing the reliability of a system or a component (system) where the state of the system and the state of process variables influences each other in addition to an exogenous perturbation influence: this is the dynamic reliability. We consider discrete time case, that is the state of the system as well as the state of process variables are observed or measured at discrete time instants. A mathematical tool that shows interesting properties for modeling and analyzing this problem is the so called Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) that permit graphical representation of stochastic processes. Furthermore their learning and inference capabilities can be exploited to take into account experimental data or expert’s knowledge. We will show that a complex interaction between system and process on one hand and between system, process and exogenous perturbation on the other hand can simply be represented graphically by a dynamic Bayesian network. With their extended tool, known as influence diagrams (ID) that integrate actions or decisions possibilities, one can analyze and optimize a maintenance policy and/or make reactive decision during an accident by simulating different scenarios of its evolution for instance.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".