The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession
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Abstract
This paper analyzes the magnitude and sources of long-term earnings declines associated with graduating from college during a recession. Using a large longitudinal university-employer-employee dataset, we find that the cost of recessions for new graduates is substantial and unequal. Unlucky graduates suffer persistent earnings declines lasting ten years. They start to work for lower paying employers, and then partly recover through a gradual process of mobility toward better firms. We document that more advantaged graduates suffer less from graduating in recessions because they switch to better firms quickly, while earnings of less advantaged graduates can be permanently affected by cyclical downgrading. (JEL E32, I23, J22, J23, J31)
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The record
- Venue
- American Economic Journal Applied Economics
- Topic
- Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Field
- Economics, Econometrics and Finance
- Canadian institutions
- Statistics CanadaUniversity of Toronto
- Funders
- —
- Keywords
- RecessionEarningsEconomicsTerm (time)Labour economicsWork (physics)Demographic economicsWork hoursEarnings growthWorking hoursAccountingKeynesian economicsEngineering
- Has abstract in OpenAlex
- yes