The Intraday Behaviour of Bid-Ask Spreads, Trading Volume and Return Volatility: Evidence from DAX30
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper undertakes a fresh empirical investigation of key financial market variables and the theories that link them. We employ high frequency 5-minute data that include transaction price, trading volume, and the close bid and ask quote for the period May 5, 2004 through September 29, 2005. We document a number of regularities in the pattern of intraday return volatility, trading volume and bid-ask spreads. We are able to confirm the reverse J-shaped pattern of intraday bid-ask spreads with the exception of a major bump following the intraday auction at 13:05 CET. The aggregate trading volume exhibits L-shaped pattern for the German blue chip index, while German index volatility displays a somewhat reverse J-shaped pattern with two major bumps at 14:30 and 15:30 CET. Our empirical findings show that contemporaneous and lagged trading volume and bid-ask spreads have numerically small but statistically significant effect on return volatility. Our results also indicate asymmetry in the effects of volume on conditional volatility. However, inclusion of both measures as proxy for informal arrival in the conditional volatility equation does not explain the well known volatility persistence in intraday stock returns.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".