Empirical Research on the Interaction Between Oil Price Shock and World Economic Activity
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Although the research on the relation between oil price shock and economic growth have emerged in a large amount since the 1970s, there has been little empirical research on the interaction between oil price shock and world economic activity. In this paper, the unit roots test with two structural breaks and VAR model are used to study the interaction from the first quarter of 1970 to the fourth quarter of 2007. The empirical results indicate: the oil price and world GDP series are both nonstationary with two structural breaks and their interaction is remarkably different in different phases. The response of oil price to world economy is stronger than the opposite one and there is no cointegration relationship. There exists significantly bidirectional causal relationship in the first and fourth phases. The contribution of oil price to the variance decomposition of world economy occupies only a small proportion in all phases. But the contribution of world economy to the variance decomposition of oil price surpasses its own after periods in the second and fourth phases. Overall, the interaction between oil price and world economy changes along with different phases.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".