Thaw Settlement Hazard of Permafrost Related to Climate Warming in Alaska
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Permafrost temperatures have increased in Alaska since the 1960s, and many impacts of climate warming are associated with permafrost thaw. Thaw of permafrost caused by increases in permafrost temperature may result in thaw settlement and significant damage to infrastructure. The goal of this research is to identify regions of Alaska at risk from thaw subsidence related to climate warming and to determine the relative risk of those regions. We developed a Permafrost Settlement Hazard Index (PSHI) by analyzing anticipated climate warming and the ecological characteristics that regulate thaw subsidence. This analysis provides statistical verification that the discontinuous permafrost region is at more risk of thaw settlement than other regions of Alaska. In addition, it estimates future thaw subsidence risk in Alaska in 2050 using future temperature increases projected by published climate models. Results indicate increased thaw subsidence risk in northern Alaska in 2050, with the greatest increase expected in parts of northwest Alaska. However, in the interior and southwest Alaska, projected disappearance of permafrost from the surface will reduce the risk of thaw subsidence.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".