Five-year Favorable Outcome of Patients with Early Rheumatoid Arthritis in the 2000s: Data from the ESPOIR Cohort
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To report the 5-year outcome of a large prospective cohort of patients with very early rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and to identify factors predictive of outcome. METHODS: Patients were recruited if they had early arthritis of < 6 months' duration, had a high probability of developing RA, and had never been prescribed disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARD) or steroids. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine factors that predict outcome. RESULTS: We included 813 patients from December 2002 to April 2005. Age was 48.1 ± 12.6 years, delay before referral 103.1 ± 52.4 days, 28-joint Disease Activity Score (DAS28) 5.1 ± 1.3, Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) 1.0 ± 0.7; 45.8% and 38.7% had rheumatoid factor or antibodies to cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP), respectively; 22% had hand or foot erosions; 78.5% fulfilled the American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism criteria for RA at baseline and 93.8% during followup. At 5 years, 573 patients were evaluated. The outcome was mild for most patients: disease activity (median DAS28 = 2.5) and HAQ disability (median 0.3) were well controlled over time; 50.6% achieved DAS28 remission and 64.7% low disease activity. Radiographic progression was low (2.9 Sharp unit/year) and only a few patients required joint surgery. Nevertheless, some patients developed new comorbidities. During the 5 years, 82.7% of patients had received at least 1 DMARD (methotrexate, 65.9%), 18.3% a biological DMARD, and about 60% prednisone at least once. Anti-CCP was the best predictor of remaining in the cohort for 5 years, of prescription of synthetic or biologic DMARD, and of radiographic progression. CONCLUSION: The 5-year outcome of an early RA cohort in the 2000s was described. Anti-CCP was a robust predictor of outcome. The generally good 5-year outcome could be related to early referral and early effective treatment, key processes in the management of early RA in daily practice.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".