VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERNS AFFECT ANNUAL SURVIVAL OF NORTHERN FLICKERS MORE THAN PHENOTYPE IN THE HYBRID ZONE
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Fitness in a hybrid zone is determined both by the reproductive success and the survival of phenotypes. The hybrid zone of Northern Flickers (Colaptes auratus), a common woodpecker, is one of the largest and most well-known hybrid zones in North America. Bounded-hybrid superiority, the most widely accepted hypothesis for the persistence of the zone, suggests hybrids should have equal or higher reproduction or survival than parental types in the zone, but the latter life history trait has never been examined. We analyzed the apparent survival of 1117 flickers over nine years using capture-recapture models and found no evidence that the phenotypic hybrid index influenced survival. Instead, annual adult apparent survival was best modeled according to large-scale weather patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During warm phases of the NAO, adult flickers had lower survival compared to cooler phases of NAO. There was no evidence that phenotype influenced the local recruitment of yearling flickers to the study area and no effect of NAO on this relationship. These results suggest survival in the flicker hybrid zone is largely influenced by annually variable weather patterns and that if there are differences in survival according to phenotype, they are extremely small for the flicker hybrid zone in the north.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".