Analysis of consecutive droughts on the Canadian Prairies
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Canadian Prairie precipitation totals were classified using fixed thresholds corresponding to the 10th percentile and median for the growing season (April to August) and agricultural year (September to August), in order to study the incidence of consecutive drought. These time frames are significant to water supply and agricultural activities. Consecutive drought events were classified as either back to back years with precipitation below the 10th percentile, or a year with precipitation below the 10th percentile followed by one or more years with less than median precipitation. The Palliser Triangle (an area in the southern Prairies) most consistently recorded consecutive drought events. While generally receiving higher precipitation totals, stations in the north were not immune to such events. Using the Palmer Drought Index, severe droughts were detected in the 1910s, 1930s and 1960s, corresponding to notably dry periods across the Canadian Prairies as a whole.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it