Uncertainty estimation in seismo-acoustic reflection travel time inversion
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper develops a nonlinear Bayesian inversion for high-resolution seabed reflection travel time data including rigorous uncertainty estimation and examination of statistical assumptions. Travel time data are picked on seismo-acoustic traces and inverted for a layered sediment sound-velocity model. Particular attention is paid to picking errors which are often biased, correlated, and nonstationary. Non-Toeplitz data covariance matrices are estimated and included in the inversion along with unknown travel time offset (bias) parameters to account for these errors. Simulated experiments show that neglecting error covariances and biases can cause misleading inversion results with unrealistically high confidence. The inversion samples the posterior probability density and provides a solution in terms of one- and two-dimensional marginal probability densities, correlations, and credibility intervals. Statistical assumptions are examined through the data residuals with rigorous statistical tests. The method is applied to shallow-water data collected on the Malta Plateau during the SCARAB98 experiment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.028 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".