The telegraph, co-ordination of tramp shipping, and growth in world trade, 1870-1910
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The growth of trade after 1860 has been attributed to declining tariffs, to falling transport costs, and, recently, to monetary arrangements. However, coincident with the rise of trade the second half of the nineteenth century saw the development of the first electric communication network: the telegraph. The first successful trans-oceanic cable was operating in 1865. The telegraph remained the only direct trans-oceanic communication link until into the twentieth century. Little research has been conducted explicitly linking the impact of telegraphs on international shipping and international trade. A panel is used to show that there is a correlation between the diffusion of the telegraph, co-ordination of shipping, and the growth of world trade even controlling for the impact of other well-studied effects. The telegraph reduced the time ships spent in port and allowed ships to travel farther among ports to collect more valuable cargo.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".