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Record W2079379413 · doi:10.1109/mspec.2015.7095197

Keep on flying [Numbers Don't Lie]

2015· article· en· W2079379413 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueIEEE Spectrum · 2015
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEngineering
TopicAir Traffic Management and Optimization
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsAeronauticsCrashAviationCrewAviation safetyCivil aviationEngineeringComputer scienceAerospace engineering

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

YOU MIGHT THINK 2014 WAS A BAD YEAR FOR FLYING. There were four highly publicized accidents–the still-mysterious disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 in March, the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over Ukraine in July, AirAsia Flight QZ8501 falling into the Java Sea in December, and finally, in July, the Air Algerie Flight 5017 crash in Mali, for a total of 815 dead. · But according to Ascend, the consulting branch of Flightglobal that monitors aircraft accidents, 2014 in fact had the best accident rate in history: one fatality per 2.38 million flights, compared to the previous best of one per 2.37 million in 2012. True, Ascend did not count the downing of MH Flight 17, which was an act of war, not an accident. · In any case, it's better to personalize the problem by putting it in terms of the risk per passenger per hour of flight. The necessary data are in the annual safety report by the International Civil Aviation Organization, which covers large jetliners as well as smaller commuter planes. · In 2013, 32.1 million domestic and international flights carried 3.1 billion people, logged 5.8 trillion passenger-kilometers, and experienced 90 accidents, causing 173 fatalities. With the mean flight time at about 2.2 hours, this implies roughly 6.8 billion of passenger-hours or 2.5 × 10 <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">-8</sup> fatalities per person per hour in the air. For large jetliners—dominated by Airbuses and Boeings and regional jets made by Canada's Bombardier and Brazil's Embraer–the risk that year was just 1 × 10 <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">-8</sup> . In 2014, large jetliner accidents (excluding the MH17) would have pushed the latter rate to about 8 × 10 <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">-8</sup> , but the mean for the past decade remains at historic lows.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.699
Threshold uncertainty score0.439

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.018
GPT teacher head0.205
Teacher spread0.188 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it