Fuzzy cognitive map reconstruction - dynamics vs. History
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study is concerned with a fundamental issue of time series representation for modeling and prediction with Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. We introduce two distinct time series representation schemes for Fuzzy Cognitive Map design. First method is based on time series amplitude, amplitude change, and change of amplitude change (dynamics perspective). Second scheme is based on three consecutive historical observations: present value, past value and before past value (history perspective). Introduced procedures are experimentally verified and compared on several synthetic and real-world time series of various characteristics. The history-oriented time series representation turned out to be more advantageous. Quality of FCM-based time series models and one-step-ahead predictions were measured in terms of Mean Squared Error. We have shown that models designed with history-oriented time series representation generally require less FCM nodes to be of comparable quality as models built on dynamics-oriented time series representation. As a result, with the history-oriented time series representation scheme we are able to construct simpler and therefore better models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".