A Matter of Degree(s): Twentieth‐Century Trends in Occupational Status Returns to Educational Credentials in Canada*
Bibliographic record
Abstract
En utilisant des données en provenance de l'Enquête sur la mobilité canadienne de 1973 et des Enquêtes générates sociales de 1986 et de 1994 effectuées par Statistique Canada, j'examine d'autres prévisions des tendances du retour aux compétences scolaires par rapport au statut du poste de débutant, prévisions liées aux théories de l'indus‐trialisme, de la sociéty postindustrielle, de la reproduction sociale et du choix rationnel. Entre 1920 et 1989, l'impact de la tendance de reflet des compétences scolaires varie selon le rendement scolaire, et les tendances observées sont compatibles avec les prévisions de la théorie du choix rationnel. Tandis que l'obtention d'un diplôme d'é‐tudes supérieures pour des femmes et des hommes a fait une progression constante depuis les années vingt, la valeur d'un diplöme de premier cycle sur le marche canadien du travail, après avoir atteint un sommet vers la fin des années cinquante, a beaucoup diminué, surtout chez les hommes. En utilisant un modèle de série chrono‐logique de macroniveau, je constate que ces tendances sont associées aux tendances de l'offre et de la demande pour les travailleurs possé‐dant ces compétences, comme cela est prévu dans la théorie du choix rationnel. Using data from the 1973 Canadian Mobility Study and the 1986 and 1994 Statistics Canada General Social Surveys, I test alternative predictions of trends in the returns to educational credentials in the form of status of entry‐level job derived from industrialism, post‐industrial society, social reproduction, and rational choice theories. Between 1920 and 1989, the shape of the trend in the effect of qualifications varies by level of attainment, and the observed trends are most consistent with the predictions of rational choice theory. While returns to an advanced degree have been consistently high since the 1920s for both women and men, the value of a baccalaureate degree in the Canadian job market has declined considerably since peaking in the late 1950s, particularly among men. Using a macro‐level time‐series model, I find that these trends are associated with trends in the supply of and demand for workers with these credentials, as predicted by rational choice theory.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.009 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".