Model Checking with Residuals for g-estimation of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper, we discuss model checking with residual diagnostic plots for g-estimation of optimal dynamic treatment regimes. The g-estimation method requires three different model specifications at each treatment interval under consideration: (1) the blip model; (2) the expected counterfactual model; and (3) the propensity model. Of these, the expected counterfactual model is especially difficult to specify correctly in practice and so far there has been little guidance as to how to check for model misspecification. Residual plots are a useful and standard tool for model diagnostics in the classical regression setting; we have adapted this approach for g-estimation. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach in a simulation study, and apply it to real data in the context of estimating the optimal time to stop breastfeeding.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.077 | 0.353 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".