The down-to-earth future of Si substrate multi-junction concentrator photovoltaics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The high costs of multi-junction (MJ) cells are a barrier to transferring MJ technology from space to terrestrial Concentrator Photovoltaic (CPV) markets. This may be addressed with significant impact by transitioning from Ge to Si substrates. By exploiting reduced material costs, new manufacturing practices including automation and revised quality standards, and by leveraging manufacturing efficiencies inherent to larger wafer sizes, up to 200 mm, the selection of Si as the substrate material allows for reductions potentially as large as 70% of current values. It is possible to demonstrate how plausible reductions to system costs (22 - 40%), in combination with very conservative cell cost reductions, make achieving competitive Cost of Electricity (COE) values in the order of $0.10/kWh a likely scenario in the near future for MJ CPV. Impending increases to conversion efficiencies (up to 50%), exploited conjointly with stated cost reduction factors (particularly system cost reduction), promise to drive COE values lower still, potentially under $0.08/kWh.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".