Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation on Operation of the Capilano Water Supply Reservoir, Vancouver, British Columbia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The magnitude and duration of low reservoir inflows in the summer and early fall are critical for water supply planning and operations for the Greater Vancouver Regional District (now Metro Vancouver). The influence of climate fluctuations on summer and fall reservoir inflows was investigated and a reservoir operation model developed to simulate Capilano Reservoir operations. Flow records for the gauge on the Capilano River above Intake were adjusted to account for releases from the upstream Palisade Lake. It was found that reservoir inflows for the June to September period are affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The 15 lowest June to September inflows over the period of gauge records have all been associated with warm or neutral ENSO conditions typically combined with warm or neutral PDO conditions. Annual reservoir drawdown, defined as the annual extended period of no spill, was used as an indicator of stress on reservoir operations. Simulation of reservoir inflows and outflows from 1914 to 2005 showed that the longest reservoir drawdown durations were almost always associated with warm ENSO and warm PDO conditions. The shortest periods of drawdown were normally associated with both cool ENSO and cool PDO conditions. Due to the storage effects, reservoir drawdown is a good indicator of periodic climate variations because of amplification, similar to the sensitivity of glaciers to climate episodes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".