Prediction of Early-Onset Deviant Peer Group Affiliation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
CONTEXT: Deviant peer group involvement is strongly related to onset, aggravation, and persistence of conduct problems during adolescence. OBJECTIVE: To identify early childhood behavioral profiles that predict early-onset deviant peer group involvement. DESIGN: A 12-year longitudinal study of behavioral development. SETTING: Fifty-three inner-city elementary schools in a large Canadian city. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1037 boys in kindergarten from low socioeconomic neighborhoods. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Annual self-reported deviant peer group involvement from 11 to 17 years of age. RESULTS: Kindergarten boys were at highest risk of following an early adolescence trajectory of deviant peer group affiliation if they were hyperactive, fearless, and low on prosocial behaviors but much less at risk if they scored high on only 2 of these dimensions. Family adversity had no main effect but substantially increased the risk of following an early adolescence trajectory of deviant peer group affiliation for boys with a profile of hyperactivity, fearlessness, and low prosocial behaviors. CONCLUSIONS: Kindergarten boys from low socioeconomic areas who are hyperactive, fearless, infrequently prosocial, and raised in adverse family environments are at much heightened risk of engaging in deviant peer groups early in their development. Boys at high risk can be identified as early as kindergarten and should be targeted for preventive intervention.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".