Unemployment, GDP, and Crime: The Importance of Multiple Measurements of the Economy
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The relationship between unemployment and crime is complex and consists of two independent and counteracting mechanisms: the motivation effect and the guardianship/opportunity effect. Cantor and Land (1985) put forth a model that synthesizes these two effects and found that guardianship/opportunity dominates motivation. Recent work questions this result and the use of unemployment to measure economic performance. Instead, some of this new research uses a direct measure of the economy at the US state level – gross state product, for example. In the present article, the relationship between crime and economic performance is investigated using unemployment, gross domestic product, a hybrid modelling approach, and Canadian provinces as the unit of analysis. It is found that both unemployment and gross domestic product matter for crime, guardianship/opportunity explains more results than motivation, and the strength of either effect depends on the crime type being analysed.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it