The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and northern high latitude wintertime surface air temperatures
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the primary mode of large‐scale intraseasonal variability in the tropics. Recent work has connected the MJO to atmospheric variability in mid‐latitudes. We focus on relationships between the MJO and wintertime surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. The MJO is diagnosed using principal EOF of 850 hPa zonal winds from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis for 1979–2002. Station data are used for surface air temperature in Alaska, Canada, the former U.S.S.R., Greenland, and Iceland. The phase of the MJO has a substantial systematic and spatially coherent effect on intraseasonal variability in wintertime surface air temperature through the global Arctic. Composites of geopotential height and specific humidity suggest that radiative and advective effects are important in the observed connections. These statistical connections may be useful for wintertime temperature forecasts. The mechanisms connecting intraseasonal tropical variability with polar and sub‐polar variability bear examination.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".