Canadian streamflow trend detection: impacts of serial and cross-correlation
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test has been widely applied to assess the significance of trends in hydrological time series. It is known that the existence of serial correlation in a time series will affect the ability of the test to assess the site significance of a trend; and the presence of cross-correlation among sites in a network will influence the ability of the test to evaluate the field significance of trends over the network. This study proposes to use a trend-free pre-whitening (TFPW) procedure to remove serial correlation from time series, and hence to eliminate the effect of serial correlation on the MK test. An additional bootstrap test with preserving the cross-correlation structure of a network is proposed to assess the field significance of upward and downward trends over the network separately. At the significance level of 0.05, the site significance of trends in Canadian annual minimum, mean, and maximum daily streamflows with 30-, 40- and 50-year records was assessed by the MK test with the TFPW procedure (TFPW-MK). The spatial illustration of the significant trends at sites indicates that: (a) the 30-year annual minimum and mean daily flows significantly decreased in the regions of southern British Columbia (BC), around the centre of Prairie Provinces, and in Atlantic Provinces, and significantly increased in the region of northern BC and Yukon Territory; and (b) the annual maximum daily flow significantly decreased across southern Canada. The field significance of trends over the whole country was evaluated by the bootstrap test at the significance level of 0.05 and none of the three flow regimes experienced field-significant changes.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it