Evolutionary Rescue in Structured Populations
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Environmental change, if severe, can drive a population extinct unless the population succeeds in adapting to the new conditions. How likely is a population to win the race between population decline and adaptive evolution? Assuming that environmental degradation progresses across a habitat, we analyze the impact of several ecological factors on the probability of evolutionary rescue. Specifically, we study the influence of population structure and density-dependent competition as well as the speed and severity of environmental change. We also determine the relative contribution of standing genetic variation and new mutations to evolutionary rescue. To describe population structure, we use a generalized island model, where islands are affected by environmental deterioration one after the other. Our analysis is based on the mathematical theory of time-inhomogeneous branching processes and complemented by computer simulations. We find that in the interplay of various, partially antagonistic effects, the probability of evolutionary rescue can show nontrivial and unexpected dependence on ecological characteristics. In particular, we generally observe a nonmonotonic dependence on the migration rate between islands. Counterintuitively, under some circumstances, evolutionary rescue can occur more readily in the face of harsher environmental shifts, because of the reduced competition experienced by mutant individuals. Similarly, rescue sometimes occurs more readily when the entire habitat degrades rapidly, rather than progressively over time, particularly when migration is high and competition strong.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it